Similar drill as with my college football ratings. A weighted combination of W/L percentage, strength of schedule, and offensive/defensive efficiency, ONLY, is used to rank teams and place them into a hypothetical NCAA tournament seed list. No compilations of Top 50 kenpom wins or S-curve development here. Joe Bracketology has that ground pretty well-covered at ESPN.com. All I'm doing here is pointing out what I think are weekly misses by the major polls, stirring the basketball pot a little, starting an argument or two, and having a little fun talking hoops.
Right now, I think Louisville and Butler are the two most overrated teams in the AP Top 25. Purdue and USC are underrated, in my opinion. I would have Oklahoma, Villanova, Kansas, and Xavier as my #1 seeds, if I was in charge of the bracket and if the tournament started this weekend.
And for the record, why we lean on lists of 25 teams has boggled my mind since I was a kid. Why 25? What we care about in, the end, are 68 teams, right? 32 auto bids and 36 at large teams. So why not rank teams in that fashion?
My Numbers as of Tuesday January 19th:
| rank | seed | bid | team | mn index | AP rank | delta |
| 1 | 1 | at large | Oklahoma | 7.0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 1 | auto | Villanova | 7.1 | 4 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | auto | Kansas | 11.3 | 3 | 0 |
| 4 | 1 | at large | Xavier | 11.9 | 5 | 1 |
| 5 | 2 | auto | Texas A&M | 13.9 | 10 | 5 |
| 6 | 2 | auto | Iowa | 16.0 | 9 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | auto | North Carolina | 16.8 | 2 | -5 |
| 8 | 2 | at large | Michigan State | 19.3 | 11 | 3 |
| 9 | 3 | at large | West Virginia | 26.3 | 6 | -3 |
| 10 | 3 | at large | Miami-Florida | 27.3 | 15 | 5 |
| 11 | 3 | at large | Virginia | 29.6 | 13 | 2 |
| 12 | 3 | at large | Southern California | 30.8 | 21 | 9 |
| 13 | 4 | at large | Purdue | 32.3 | 22 | 9 |
| 14 | 4 | at large | Maryland | 33.3 | 7 | -7 |
| 15 | 4 | at large | Iowa State | 35.3 | 19 | 4 |
| 16 | 4 | at large | Oregon | 36.3 | NR | |
| 17 | 5 | auto | Arizona | 39.3 | 12 | -5 |
| 18 | 5 | at large | Saint Joseph's-Pa. | 46.5 | NR | |
| 19 | 5 | at large | Kentucky | 46.6 | 23 | 4 |
| 20 | 5 | at large | Colorado | 48.5 | NR | |
| 21 | 6 | at large | Florida State | 49.5 | NR | |
| 22 | 6 | auto | Monmouth-NJ | 50.6 | NR | |
| 23 | 6 | at large | Providence | 51.9 | 16 | -7 |
| 24 | 6 | at large | Baylor | 52.3 | 14 | -10 |
| 25 | 7 | at large | Duke | 53.0 | 20 | -5 |
| 26 | 7 | auto | Valparaiso | 54.9 | NR | |
| 27 | 7 | auto | Wichita State | 55.4 | NR | |
| 28 | 7 | at large | Michigan | 58.3 | NR | |
| 29 | 8 | at large | Utah | 58.8 | NR | |
| 30 | 8 | at large | Gonzaga | 58.9 | NR | |
| 31 | 8 | at large | Texas Tech | 59.1 | NR | |
| 32 | 8 | at large | South Carolina | 60.5 | 24 | -8 |
| 33 | 9 | auto | Connecticut | 61.8 | NR | |
| 34 | 9 | at large | Butler | 62.4 | 18 | -16 |
| 35 | 9 | at large | Indiana | 63.0 | 25 | -10 |
| 36 | 9 | at large | California | 65.4 | NR | |
| 37 | 10 | at large | Florida | 67.1 | NR | |
| 38 | 10 | auto | VCU | 67.8 | NR | |
| 39 | 10 | at large | Notre Dame | 68.5 | NR | |
| 40 | 10 | at large | Texas | 68.5 | NR | |
| 41 | 11 | at large | Louisville | 69.4 | 19 | -22 |
| 42 | 11 | at large | Cincinnati | 69.6 | ||
| 43 | 11 | at large | Seton Hall | 69.6 | ||
| 44 | play-in | at large | George Washington | 70.1 | ||
| 45 | play-in | at large | Syracuse | 70.1 | ||
| 46 | play-in | at large | Oregon State | 70.9 | ||
| 47 | play-in | at large | Boise State | 71.4 | ||
| 48 | 12 | auto | Saint Mary's-Cal. | 77.5 | ||
| 49 | 12 | auto | Little Rock | 86.0 | ||
| 50 | 12 | auto | South Dakota State | 95.8 | ||
| 51 | 13 | auto | Chattanooga | 97.9 | ||
| 52 | 13 | auto | Akron | 99.6 | ||
| 53 | 13 | auto | Stony Brook-NY | 100.9 | ||
| 54 | 13 | auto | San Diego State | 102.0 | ||
| 55 | 14 | auto | William & Mary | 105.1 | ||
| 56 | 14 | auto | Hawai'i | 106.0 | ||
| 57 | 14 | auto | UAB | 116.3 | ||
| 58 | 14 | auto | Belmont | 118.1 | ||
| 59 | 15 | auto | Weber State | 137.8 | ||
| 60 | 15 | auto | Yale | 138.4 | ||
| 61 | 15 | auto | CS Bakersfield | 141.6 | ||
| 62 | 15 | auto | NC Asheville | 145.9 | ||
| 63 | 16 | auto | Navy | 151.6 | ||
| 64 | 16 | auto | Stephen F. Austin | 155.8 | ||
| 65 | play-in | auto | North Florida(UNF) | 156.4 | ||
| 66 | play-in | auto | Texas Southern | 195.9 | ||
| 67 | play-in | auto | Wagner | 196.8 | ||
| 68 | play-in | auto | Norfolk State | 221.1 | ||
| 69 | first 4 out | Pittsburgh | 71.4 | |||
| 70 | first 4 out | UC Irvine | 76.5 | |||
| 71 | first 4 out | BYU | 77.4 | |||
| 72 | first 4 out | Washington | 77.4 | |||
| 73 | next 4 out | Evansville | 77.6 | |||
| 74 | next 4 out | Clemson | 79.3 | |||
| 75 | next 4 out | Kansas State | 80.4 | |||
| 76 | next 4 out | Arizona State | 81.3 |
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