Monday, February 15, 2016

Rock Chalk Rising

Kansas, off an impressive weekend win over Oklahoma, has risen to the top of the stack in the 'My Numbers' bracket.  The AP voters like Villanova, and Cat's "basic" profile is solid, but my eyes and my numbers like Kansas a little more right now.  KU's offense is better than 'Nova's and their B12 schedule is an order of magnitude tougher than Villanova's BEast slate.  The Jayhawks are my  "Number 1 One Seed" right now.

Like a couple weeks ago, I still think Virginia is a worthy #1 seed right now even though the APers have the 'Hoos down a peg.  West Virginia and Miami FL are likewise a bit underrated in my view, as is (surprise!) Duke. 

On the flip side, Providence doesn't belong in anybody's Top 25.  I think the Friars have a bid in them, I don't see them any better than a #9 seed right now.  And I like Dayton, but I think their #14 spot in the AP Poll this week is a little lofty.  Notre Dame's swollen defensive efficiency rating drags them down in My Numbers, but the quality wins the Irish are racking up will be hard to ignore by committee.

Errata -- My quality control department regrets letting Louisville slip onto this list, despite their decision to fall on their sword in the evolving Whore-gate saga, much to Rick Pitino's chagrin.  We won't let it happen again. 

Ratings reflect games through Sunday February 14th

rank seed flag Team W L OEFF DEFF SOS MN Index AP Rank
1 1 auto Kansas  21 4 10 25 5 11.2 2
2 1 at large Oklahoma  20 4 8 33 3 12.8 3
3 1 auto Virginia  20 5 12 9 9 14.2 7
4 1 auto Villanova  22 3 18 4 35 15.7 1
5 2 at large West Virginia  20 5 29 6 16 18.8 10
6 2 at large Miami FL  20 4 19 30 21 20.2 11
7 2 at large Iowa  20 5 7 29 24 21.7 4
8 2 at large Xavier  22 3 25 19 50 24.3 8
9 3 at large North Carolina  21 4 5 40 40 24.5 5
10 3 at large Maryland  22 4 32 11 45 24.8 6
11 3 auto Kentucky  19 6 9 37 27 28.7 14
12 3 auto Michigan St.  21 5 3 28 53 28.8 8
13 4 auto Oregon  20 6 13 68 20 30.5 16
14 4 at large Iowa St.  18 7 4 77 7 33.5 13
15 4 at large Duke  19 6 2 109 22 37.8 20
16 4 at large Texas A&M  18 7 44 18 32 38.7 NR
17 5 at large Arizona  21 5 16 38 80 41.7 12
18 5 at large Purdue  20 6 68 7 60 42.5 17
19 5 at large Texas  16 9 40 26 2 44.0 24
20 5 at large Louisville  19 6 51 1 78 46.7 18
21 6 at large Utah  19 7 30 69 48 47.8 NR
22 6 at large USC  18 7 31 49 54 49.0 NR
23 6 at large Indiana  20 6 14 63 83 50.8 22
24 6 at large Syracuse  18 8 36 47 39 51.2 NR
25 7 at large South Carolina  21 4 77 51 82 52.3 NR
26 7 at large Baylor  18 7 11 151 28 54.0 25
27 7 at large Florida  16 9 101 14 11 55.2 NR
28 7 at large Dayton  21 3 83 20 111 55.5 15
29 8 at large SMU  21 3 6 90 115 55.7 NR
30 8 at large Texas Tech  15 9 46 52 6 56.0 NR
31 8 at large Florida St.  16 9 66 46 18 57.0 NR
32 8 at large Wisconsin  16 9 52 41 34 59.2 NR
33 9 at large California  17 8 48 43 58 60.2 NR
34 9 at large Providence  19 7 114 34 63 61.0 23
35 9 auto Saint Joseph's  21 4 54 44 124 61.3 NR
36 9 at large Seton Hall  17 7 65 35 70 62.7 NR
37 10 auto Connecticut  18 7 81 8 92 63.2 NR
38 10 auto Wichita St.  18 7 84 3 93 63.2 NR
39 10 at large Michigan  19 7 15 146 65 63.8 NR
40 10 auto Gonzaga  20 6 35 48 120 64.2 NR
41 11 at large Notre Dame  18 7 1 231 30 66.3 19
42 11 at large Vanderbilt  15 10 75 16 25 66.5
43 11 at large Colorado  19 7 121 45 73 67.3
44 play-in at large Cincinnati  19 7 87 10 109 67.8
45 play-in at large Tulsa  16 9 53 58 56 69.5
46 12 auto Monmouth  21 5 70 54 128 69.3
47 12 at large Oregon St.  15 9 107 60 12 69.5
48 12 auto South Dakota St.  20 6 58 103 146 85.8
49 play-in auto Arkansas Little Rock  22 3 109 17 197 87.0
50 play-in auto San Diego St.  19 7 246 5 96 89.2
51 13 auto Valparaiso  21 5 142 2 180 90.0
52 13 auto UNC Wilmington  20 5 69 83 175 91.3
53 13 auto Chattanooga  23 4 119 55 182 92.0
54 13 auto Akron  20 5 45 124 176 94.5
55 14 auto Yale  17 5 94 39 223 106.2
56 14 auto Stony Brook  22 4 110 31 288 122.2
57 14 auto Hawaii  20 3 123 23 311 130.0
58 14 auto Stephen F. Austin  18 5 106 97 298 142.5
59 15 auto Belmont  18 9 39 271 195 144.3
60 15 auto UAB  21 5 118 154 320 158.0
61 15 auto New Mexico St.  18 8 180 53 308 165.8
62 15 auto UNC Asheville  17 9 224 71 266 168.5
63 16 auto Weber St.  18 7 162 91 329 169.5
64 16 auto North Florida  18 10 24 330 249 174.0
65 play-in auto Navy  18 9 269 107 324 198.3
66 play-in auto Texas Southern  11 12 184 176 229 206.0
67 play-in auto Wagner  16 9 241 153 350 214.7
68 play-in auto Norfolk St.  13 13 105 325 248 218.3
69 first 4 out Pittsburgh  17 7 23 138 61 69.8
70 first 4 out Creighton  17 9 64 42 74 73.0
71 first 4 out Alabama  15 9 167 21 13 73.3
72 first 4 out UCLA  14 11 33 102 4 73.5
73 next 4 out Butler  17 8 17 136 76 76.5
74 next 4 out LSU  16 9 27 115 66 78.0
75 next 4 out Washington  15 10 79 74 29 78.2
76 next 4 out Princeton  16 5 47 86 135 78.8